How Duke Is Set to Dethrone Kentucky as the New NBA Draft King in 2025

Why Duke Is Poised to Overtake Kentucky as the NBA’s Top Draft Factory

The tide is turning in college basketball, and it’s not just happening on the court. The 2025 NBA Draft is shaping up to be a generational milestone for the Duke Blue Devils, one that may finally tilt the scales in their favor in the race for NBA Draft supremacy. Long considered second to Kentucky in terms of producing NBA-ready talent, Duke is now in prime position to overtake the Wildcats—and perhaps end the long-standing narrative once and for all.

For decades, Kentucky reigned supreme as the premier college-to-NBA pipeline. The name “Calipari” was synonymous with top-tier NBA talent. From John Wall to Anthony Davis, Devin Booker to De’Aaron Fox, the Wildcats seemed to have a reserved seat at the first round of every NBA Draft. But that era is fading fast.

Duke’s Draft Class: A Historic Surge Incoming

At the heart of this shift is Duke’s star-studded 2025 draft class. The Blue Devils are expected to send a minimum of three players to the top 10 on Wednesday night:

• Cooper Flagg: The consensus No. 1 overall pick and perhaps the most hyped Duke recruit since Zion Williamson.

• Kon Knueppel: A versatile wing with elite shot-making ability and a high basketball IQ.

• Khaman Maluach: A mobile, shot-blocking center who offers tremendous upside.

But that’s not where it ends. Veterans Tyrese Proctor and Sion James are also in the mix, with both expected to be selected before the second round wraps up. That means Duke could easily have five players drafted in 2025, with up to four first-rounders, adding significantly to their all-time tally.

If projections hold, Duke’s total number of first-round picks will rise from 56 to 59, putting them just one behind Kentucky’s NCAA-leading 60. And here’s the kicker: Kentucky doesn’t have a projected first-rounder this year.

Kentucky’s Slip and the Calipari Aftershock

The blue bloods of college basketball rarely fall apart—but they do evolve, and sometimes not for the better. John Calipari’s departure from Kentucky to Arkansas created a vacuum that’s yet to be filled. His successor, Mark Pope, is a capable coach but runs a vastly different program.

Rather than reloading with high school stars each year, Pope prefers to lean on experienced transfers and veteran cores. That might lead to deep tournament runs, but it won’t keep Kentucky atop the draft leaderboard. Calipari’s decades of building NBA-ready freshmen gave the Wildcats a factory-like output of first-rounders. That pipeline is now disrupted.

This year’s most draftable Wildcat, Koby Brea, is more of a niche player. A sharp-shooting senior, he’s projected as a second-round selection at best. Unless a team falls in love with his stroke late in the first round, Kentucky’s first-round streak could hit a wall.

Scheyer’s Rise: The Blueprint of a New Era

While Kentucky retools, Jon Scheyer is building a new dynasty in Durham. He has embraced the high-stakes, high-reward recruiting strategy laid out by his predecessor, Mike Krzyzewski, but added a fresh modern spin that appeals to today’s five-star prospects.

The result? Back-to-back top recruiting classes. The class of 2024 features multiple potential lottery picks, while 2025 is already headlined by Cameron Boozer, the No. 1 ranked player in the country and son of Duke legend Carlos Boozer. His twin brother Cayden Boozer is also on board, adding even more firepower to Duke’s future.

With Scheyer at the helm, Duke isn’t just staying competitive—they’re dominating the recruiting landscape and positioning themselves to overtake Kentucky permanently in the draft record books.

The All-Time First-Round Pick Race: Neck-and-Neck

Here’s where things currently stand:

Duke’s proximity to Kentucky in the record books is no accident. It’s the result of years of consistent elite recruiting, NBA-level development, and postseason success. One great draft class is a win. Two in a row is a trend. Three? That’s a takeover.

UNC and Others: The Quiet Climb

While Duke and Kentucky hog the spotlight, don’t count out North Carolina. They’re also climbing. Drake Powell, despite an up-and-down freshman season, is projected to land in the late first round in 2025. With a few strong recruiting years ahead, UNC could quietly sneak back into the national draft conversation.

Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses like UCLA and Kansas continue to produce NBA talent but have ground to make up in this historic race.

Final Thoughts: The Shift Is Real, and the Stakes Are Rising

The 2025 NBA Draft could be a watershed moment for college basketball. It’s not just about where players land in the league—it’s about what these draft outcomes say about the programs that shaped them.

Duke is ascending with force, closing the gap on Kentucky’s historic lead and potentially overtaking them as soon as 2026. Kentucky, for the first time in over a decade, looks vulnerable in the NBA Draft conversation.

This year, all eyes will be on the Barclays Center—not just to see who gets picked, but to witness a changing of the guard in college basketball’s most prestigious pipeline. If the board falls right, Duke will be one draft class away from being the undisputed kings of NBA Draft history.

The message is clear: The Blue Devils are coming, and the crown is within reach.