At least one college basketball analyst believes Duke will earn another No. 1 seed in next year’s NCAA Tournament.
Despite being over 10 months out from Selection Sunday, ESPN’s lead bracketologist Joe Lunardi has released his initial 2026 NCAA Tournament projection. And surprisingly, he places Jon Scheyer’s fourth Duke squad as a top seed, even though expectations elsewhere are more reserved following significant roster turnover.
From a Tobacco Road perspective, Lunardi’s forecast is optimistic across the board: he projects NC State as an 11-seed and North Carolina as a 7-seed. Notably, both Duke and UNC are slotted into the East Region, setting up a potential Elite Eight clash in Washington, D.C.
Outside of Duke, UNC, and NC State, only two other ACC programs make Lunardi’s early bracket—Louisville as a No. 5 seed and Miami at No. 10.
Duke is coming off a stellar 35-4 season, highlighted by an ACC Tournament title and a Final Four appearance. Although the Blue Devils will lose all five starters, they return key reserves and welcome three five-star freshmen, along with Washington State transfer Cedric Coward, who initially declared for the NBA Draft but is expected to join the team.
In recruiting news, Duke recently missed out on elite 2025 prospect Nate Ament. Once considered a Duke lean, the 6-foot-10 forward from Virginia committed to Tennessee over finalists including Kentucky, Arkansas, and Louisville. Ranked No. 4 overall by the 247Sports Composite, Ament is now the highest-ranked recruit in Tennessee basketball history.
Even with the miss, Duke’s 2025 class still features three five-star signees and remains among the top in the nation. However, with few top-tier prospects left on the board, it’s unlikely Duke will finish with the No. 1 recruiting class—something they achieved in two of the last three cycles.
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