Action has been bubbling over nicely in Indian Wells, and, while we are only at the semi-final stage, there is plenty to look at from an ATP Rankings perspective.
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Here, we take assess the rankings winners and losers – and look what could pan out over the coming two days.
ATP Top 10 pre-Indian Wells
1) Jannik Sinner, 11,330
2) Alexander Zverev, 8,135
3) Carlos Alcaraz, 7,510
4) Taylor Fritz, 4,900
5) Casper Ruud, 4,045
6) Daniil Medvedev, 3,930
7) Novak Djokovic, 3,900
8) Andrey Rublev, 3,480
9) Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3,405
10) Alex de Minaur – 3,335
Despite his current absence amid suspension, world No 1 Sinner’s cushion is so large that, no matter what happened in the desert, he was guaranteed to remain on top.
However, the key question was whether Alcaraz and Zverev could stay in touch or, in the latter’s case, even close the gap to the Italian.
There was also pressure on world No 6 and fifth seed Medvedev, who had finalist points to defend from 2024 and, after a poor run of form, was at risk of dropping out of the top 10.
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ATP Live Rankings (as of 15/02/2025)
1) Jannik Sinner, 11,330
2) Alexander Zverev, 7,945
3) Carlos Alcaraz, 6,910
4) Taylor Fritz, 4,900
5) Novak Djokovic, 3,860
6) Casper Ruud, 3,855
7) Daniil Medvedev, 3,680
8) Andrey Rublev, 3,440
9) Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3,405
10) Alex de Minaur, 3,335
Currently, there has not been too much of a shift in the top 10.
With Zverev losing in round one, Sinner’s lead as the world No 1 has grown despite his absence; he had no points to defend, having already had his Indian Wells points removed as part of his sanction.
Alcaraz is still in the hunt to defend his title and stay on 7,510 points, though he still needs to win two more matches in the desert to ensure that is the case.
There has also been good news for Medvedev, who is provisionally at world No 7 in the live rankings, and will be back as the world No 5 should he win Saturday’s semi-final against Holger Rune.
Djokovic has provisionally moved up two places despite his early exit, though this will be a rise of one spot if Medvedev reaches the final.
The Big Winners
Sinner is undoubtedly a big winner from this fortnight, with closest rival Zverev falling a further 190 points behind him; the gap between the two now set to be 3,385 points.
Even if it only proves to be one spot, a move back up the rankings is also a positive for Djokovic despite his recent struggles with form and fitness.
It also looks like there could be good news for Jack Draper, who is provisionally rising three spots to a career-high of world No 11.
However, should he shock Alcaraz in Saturday’s semi-final, he would crack the top 10 and move up to world No 8 in the ATP Live Rankings.
If Draper is beaten in the semi-final and Rune wins his semi-final against Medvedev, Draper would be ranked 12th and Rune would be 11th – and the Dane will return to the top 10 if he wins the title.
Lower down the rankings, Arthur Fils will rise three places after his impressive quarter-final run, hitting a new career-high of world No 18.
Tallon Griekspoor is also closing in on a return to the top 30 thanks to his quarter-final showing, with the Dutchman provisionally up nine places to world No 34.
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The Big Losers
Towards the top of the rankings, there are no significant slips, though Zverev may be frustrated at falling further behind Sinner.
The German holds a 4-4 record since his Australian Open final defeat and will need to turn his form around quickly if he wants any chance of rising to world No 1 in 2025.
Casper Ruud will fall at least one place to world No 6 when the rankings update, behind Djokovic, and will fall two places to world No 7 should Medvedev win his semi-final.
The Norwegian was defending quarter-final points in the desert, though he was beaten in the second round.
Alex de Minaur will fall out of the top 10 if Draper wins his semi-final or if Rune wins the title, and Tsitsipas will also drop back out should both of those scenarios occur.
Ben Shelton has also dropped two places to world No 14, in part due to Draper’s rise.
