Ace or Enigma? Why Ace Bailey Is the NBA Draft’s Biggest Gamble—and Possibly Its Greatest Reward”
Rutgers’ Ace Bailey might just be the most talked-about name in the 2025 NBA Draft—and not always for the reasons you’d expect.
Bailey is a player of paradoxes. A walking highlight reel with the scoring bag of a young Kevin Durant, but also a lottery ticket wrapped in uncertainty. The 6-foot-10 wing was supposed to put Rutgers basketball on the national map. Instead, the Scarlet Knights missed the NCAA Tournament—despite having two top-three picks on their roster. Now, Bailey is projected to go as high as No. 3 overall in next month’s NBA Draft. But depending on who you ask, he’s either a future All-Star or a high-risk swing with superstar upside.
The Most Polarizing Prospect Since… Zach Edey?
Each draft class has that one player. The one who sparks heated debates in front offices and barbershops alike. Last year, it was Purdue’s 7-foot-4 Zach Edey. This year, it’s Ace Bailey.
Some scouts are intoxicated by Bailey’s elite shotmaking—his ability to rise up with a hand in his face and drill a mid-range dagger, or splash a deep contested three. Others question his decision-making, inconsistent motor, and the mystery surrounding how a player that talented couldn’t lift his team beyond mediocrity.
You won’t find a more split consensus in this class.
Not Even the Best Prospect on His Team?
To make the Bailey situation even juicier, he’s not even the top dog from Rutgers. That honor goes to teammate Dylan Harper, a steady, high-IQ playmaker who’s projected to go No. 2 to the San Antonio Spurs right behind Duke’s Cooper Flagg.
So what do you do with a player like Bailey—who has all the tools, the flair, the height (well… not quite)? According to the NBA Combine, Bailey measured in at 6-foot-7.5 without shoes, a noticeable drop from his advertised 6-foot-10 listing. But his wingspan (7’0.5”) and athletic profile still scream “NBA scorer.”
The Michael Porter Jr. Comparison
If you’re searching for a comp, think Michael Porter Jr.—the shotmaking, the length, the smooth shooting mechanics. Bailey’s numbers in guarded jumpers were elite: 39-of-81 (48.1%). That’s ridiculous efficiency on difficult looks.
Still, he shot just 30.3% on unguarded jumpers. A head-scratcher? Absolutely. But Bailey doesn’t see it that way.
“What might be a bad shot to you, you don’t work on it. I work on it,” Bailey said at the NBA Draft Combine.
That mentality is equal parts fearless and revealing.
So Where Does Ace Bailey Fit Best?
Let’s play matchmaker with the teams eyeing Bailey in the top six:
No. 3: Philadelphia 76ers
An ideal landing spot. Bailey wouldn’t carry the scoring load with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in town. He could grow slowly, find rhythm in an offense that rewards spacing, and learn to impact games without the ball.
No. 4: Charlotte Hornets
A bit awkward. The Hornets need defense and a strong off-ball guard next to LaMelo Ball. Unless they reshape the roster or slide Brandon Miller to SG, this fit feels forced.
No. 5: Utah Jazz
Utah loves versatility, and Bailey adds pure scoring to a roster already stacked with size. The frontcourt is crowded, yes—but Markkanen, Collins, Filipowski, and Kessler won’t all be long-term pieces. Bailey brings star upside. Utah can figure out the rest.
No. 6: Washington Wizards
A sneaky-good fit. Bailey could play free, get his shots up, and grow alongside Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr in a patient rebuild. The Wizards won’t expect instant stardom—which may be just what he needs.
A Talent Too Big to Ignore
Ace Bailey isn’t a sure thing—but that’s what makes him fascinating.
He’s not Flagg. He’s not Harper. But he might just be the guy we’re all talking about in five years, either as a “how did we miss?” or a “how did he fall that far?”
With a silky jumper, sky-high confidence, and the bravado to call his bad shots good ones, Bailey is either this draft’s biggest bust waiting to happen—or the sleeper who takes the league by storm.
Either way, you won’t want to look away.
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