Manchester United will regret signing Casemiro instead of £115m Moises Caicedo or £105m Declan Rice.
That is according to a recent article in The Telegraph, which sets out a number of reasons why the writer believed The Red Devils made a big mistake in splashing out for the then-Real Madrid star, although most of his points come back to age. The author does also claim that the London pair’s deals for Rice and Caicedo make better financial sense that United’s acquisition of Casemiro, but there are a number of holes in this argument.
For one thing, the article’s assertion that Casemiro will cost United more money is factually incorrect. By combining total contract value and transfer fees paid to secure each player, the Brazilian actually comes out as the cheapest, with the total outlay from United standing at £138m.
As big a number as that is, Rice’s combined fee and contract price comes to £170m over five years, while Moises Caicedo tops the trio with a £177.4m outlay, although it must be said that his 8-year deal means that there is more ‘guaranteed’ longevity with his deal.
Of course, it is not just down to the next five eight) years and how much the players will cost over that period of time. The article – quite understandably – argues that United will need to replace Casemiro sooner than Arsenal and Chelsea will need to replace Rice and Caicedo. There is often a viewpoint that if a club signs a player in their early twenties, they will ‘sort out that position for a decade.’ In reality, this barely ever happens, and is happening even less in the modern era due to more players running down their contracts or agitating for moves. Furthermore, the assumption that the Brazil star is set for a sharp decline has very little basis.
Casemiro has missed just 3.2 matches per season over the last six years due to injury, missing none in his first term in England. While he is often perceived as the type of tough-tackling midfielder that should pick up injuries, so much of the United star’s game is about positional awareness and timing that he rarely puts himself in danger of serious harm. His ‘above shoulders’ footballing talent is what has made him the best defensive midfielder in the game right now, rather than his legs – which themselves have shown no sign of slowing down anyway.
Compare that to Moises Caicedo, who is a frightening midfielder to come up against himself. The Ecuadorian is fit as a flea and exceptionally dynamic, and while his intelligence in operating as a first-phase midfielder in possession is obvious, when it comes to protecting his back four he relies on his ability to physically dominate opponents. He may well be able to carry on doing this for the length of his 8-year contract without encountering injury issues, but we simply do not have enough data on the 21-year-old to just assume that he will.
Given the significant struggles United faced during the seven matches for which Casemiro was suspended, they likely would not have finished third. Given the Brazilian’s outstanding performance in the Carabao Cup final, they likely would have finished trophy-less. Given Ten Hag’s comments on the “big difference” he has seen between potential new signings having “reservations” about moving to Old Trafford last year and being “really keen to come” this, United probably wouldn’t have signed three players already.
The impact of Casemiro cannot yet be fully understood. What we have seen is just a snapshot, but in it we can see Champions League qualification, a trophy in the manager’s first season, and a significant increase in the attractiveness of the club to potential new signings. Man United may not have managed to secure any of these things had they not signed Casemiro.
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