From the start of the season, the Boston Celtics have been the clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference and share the odds with the Denver Nuggets to win the championship. However, the Celtics can still be worth a wager in a number of futures markets even with such low odds. A longshot candidate for an individual award is one of Boston’s superstars, who has been helped by the team’s excellent play.
These three wagers at ESPN BET are worthwhile to think about.
Eastern Conference title to go to the Boston Celtics (+110)
Though they are practically even money favorites to win the East, the Celtics should be the clear favorite given their caliber of play. With a seven-game advantage over the Cleveland Cavaliers in second place for the top seed in the conference, Boston owns the best record in the NBA. Should this be a regular-season wager, their odds of winning would be enormous. The Celtics will need to continue playing at a high level throughout the playoffs because this is a postseason honor, but they appear ready to do so.
The teams most likely to face the Celtics in the postseason at the start of the season were the Milwaukee Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers were led by the reigning MVP Joel Embiid, and the Bucks had made a major statement in the offseason by acquiring Damian Lillard. However, Milwaukee changed coaches in the middle of the season, is still coping with chronic ailments, and has had trouble completely integrating Lillard. The Bucks are currently playing mediocre basketball under Doc Rivers, their new coach. Since Embiid’s knee injury forced him to miss time indefinitely, the 76ers have also suffered.
The Celtics, meanwhile, have experienced far greater success in creating a cohesive unit with their significant offseason additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, complementing their playoff-proven nucleus of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Al Horford. They have the strongest inside scoring option since Tatum/Brown with Porzingis, and Holiday is an All-Star point guard with outstanding defense and strong floor management. The five-man combination of Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday, and White has outscored opponents by a staggering 12.1 points per 100 possessions, according to basketball-reference.
The Celtics have maintained their domination in their games against the best clubs in the Eastern Conference. With an average scoring differential of +7.2 PPG, they are a combined 16-5 against the seven other teams presently in the top 8 in the Eastern Conference standings and 6-1 against the Cavaliers, Bucks, and New York Knicks. Those five defeats came from away games. With an average scoring advantage of +13.5 points per game against the other seven opponents, Boston remains undefeated at home (11-0). The Celtics’ success at home strengthens their case to win the conference because they will probably have home-court advantage and the No. 1 seed in the East during the playoffs.
NBA title to be won by the Celtics (+250)
At ESPN BET, the Celtics have the shortest championship chances right now, and as the season approaches its final stretch, those odds could go even shorter. With a BPI of 9.2, Boston leads the league by nearly two full points above the Cavaliers, who are ranked second (7.3). The Western Conference is home to the following seven teams with the highest BPI scores, which are all the Minnesota Timberwolves (6.4 BPI) to the Dallas Mavericks (2.9 BPI).
This indicates that only one of the top-ranked teams—who are overwhelmingly located in the West—will advance to the Finals. According to BPI, the Celtics could play no more than two of the top nine teams in each of the four possible playoff rounds. In addition, with Porzingis and Holiday joining the team, the Celtics are more prepared this year to handle the physical, half-court grind of postseason competition. Both lessen the Celtics’ greatest vulnerability, which was their inability to score effectively in pivotal games and situations. In the past, Tatum was usually expected to be the main creator, which resulted in turnover problems at crucial situations (82 turnovers in 20 games, or 4.1 turnovers per game, during the previous two seasons).
The Celtics’ offensive ratings of 105.3 points per 100 possessions and 106.6 points per 100 possessions in two of those three series they lost were indicative of both their turnover rate and their inability to score points effectively on offense.
Throughout his career, Holiday has never averaged more than 2.8 TO/game in the postseason. In the final two rounds of the Bucks’ 2021 championship quest (the NBA Finals and the ECF), he only averaged 2.7 TO/G. One of the most effective volume scorers in the NBA, Porzingis has a 63.6 True Shooting Percentage (TS%, which takes into account field goal, 3-point, and free throw percentages) during the last two seasons. With a 62.5 TS% in his ten career playoff outings, he has been just as effective.
The NBA’s best offense this season (121.9 points per 100 possessions) and third-best defense (111.6 points per 100 possessions) are led by the Celtics. In both categories, not a single other NBA team is ranked in the top 5. In addition, the Celtics play at the 20th slowest pace in the NBA, which suggests that the majority of their efficient scoring occurs in the half court. In postseason basketball, team defense and half-court play are both extremely important.
MVP to go to Jayson Tatum (+2500)
As of last week, Tatum was 100-1 to win MVP, but as more people have heard about his MVP case, his odds have risen to 25-1. Being the best player on the NBA’s top team is frequently a significant sign that a player should be considered for MVP. Tatum has taken on a leadership role in assimilating the new star players with the rest of the team, voluntarily taking less shots (19.4 FGA, his lowest since the 2019–20 season) to get everyone touches. Tatum leads the Celtics in points (27.1 PPG), rebounds (8.5 RPG), and assists (4.8 APG). In response, he has shot a career-best 47.5 FG% and his second-best TS% (60.5) in his career.
Tatum’s incredible performance has even attracted the attention of Stephen A. Smith, who now ranks him as his top MVP candidate. Tatum will have a stronger chance of winning MVP if people keep debating if his candidacy is legitimate. The Celtics have won seven straight games, which ties them for the longest winning streak in the NBA right now. Their dominance is encouraging for Tatum’s MVP aspirations, and even at +2500, his odds are considered lengthy. For good reason, the two front-runners for MVP are Nikola Jokic (-115) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+200), but both the
MVP, and rightfully so, but the Nuggets and Thunder are still fighting for a Western playoff berth. Tatum’s case for MVP as the top player on the greatest team would be strengthened if any or both of the clubs suffered a loss in the Western Conference.
It’s crucial to remember once more that you can cash out a long shot wager early in the season if the odds shift. If the Celtics keep up their dominance and Tatum’s MVP chances drop to +1000 or less by the end of the season, then a wager on him at 25-1 delivers greater return.
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